Tag Archive
Monetary Timelag In The Baltic States
One of the things that complicate understanding of inflation is the time lag between monetary inflation and price inflation, or in other words the time lag between money supply changes and price changes. My good friend Daniel Halvarsson estimated based on U.S. data that the time lag to be 1-2 years. It should therefore not... »
"Moderately Loose"?
The good news from the Chinese economy today was that industrial production and retail sales increased at its fastest rate this year. The bad news was that this was partly caused by very high money supply growth. While China with its higher structural growth rate has room for higher money supply growth than other... »
Money Supply Growth Turns Negative
Compared to 52 weeks ago, the MZM money supply measure in the week to August 24 was up 8.9% and M2 is up 7.6%. However, just like with price inflation, the 1 year increase is deceptive, except that monetary trends are more deflationary than they seem while price trends are more inflationary (for now).... »
Why China 2009 Isn’t Like Japan 1989
When I in 2005 predicted that China would eventually become the world’s leading economy, I was asked why the bullish view on China wasn’t like the bullish view of Japan in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when some people believed that Japan would overtake America as the world’s biggest economy, something which hasn’t... »
Euro Area Money Supply Growth Up-Credit Down
The growth rate of the European monetary aggregate most closely resembling MZM, M1, increased to 12.2% in July-the highest since 2003. In July 2008, the growth rate was just 0.5%. This increase can be explained by the fact that while the ECB raised its short-term rate from 4% to 4.25% in July 2008, it... »
